2018 is destined to be an extraordinary year for China's garlic market. In the cyclical market of garlic market, the market trajectory in 2018 will play a connecting role. At present, June is approaching, and the plot of active trading in the same period of previous years has not yet been staged. Most garlic traders in the market are rubbing their hands, but they are hovering around before stepping into the door of the garlic market in 2018.

A few days ago, an experienced garlic trader in the industry once said to me: "garlic is the same as speculation in stocks. One is to be able to withstand temptation, the other is to stand loneliness." Recall that the market price of new garlic produced in the second half of 2017 was "temptation". The price of about 20% lower than that when it was put into storage in 2016 was regarded as "low price temptation", or "profiteering temptation" for several consecutive years since 2015. However, garlic merchants who could not resist the temptation eventually suffered losses.

At this time of this year, the domestic garlic market trading activity is far less than in previous years, so it can be said to be "lonely". In the years with sufficient supply, garlic merchants are particularly cautious in this year's market participation, especially in the year when they were careless in receiving goods at high prices and selling them at a loss. Not only is the market lonely, but also the garlic merchants. If you want to do it, but you dare not, can you say that you are not lonely?

In the next three or four months, the main participants in the domestic garlic market can be divided into two categories: garlic farmers and garlic merchants. Garlic farmers only want to sell their stocks at a high price, and have no other worries. Garlic merchants want to purchase goods at a low price to earn the storage price difference. Naturally, the higher the profit, the better.

In 2018, the two hostile sides of garlic Market: garlic farmers vs garlic merchants; garlic merchants vs garlic farmers.

Garlic farmers vs garlic Merchants: garlic farmers attack garlic merchants. Garlic farmers need to catch up with the trading peak of the warehousing stage, and the specific arrival time of the trading peak can not be determined for the moment. Most of the farmers who intend to sell dried garlic are reluctant to sell and so on. It is relatively difficult for garlic merchants with good quality to get the goods. In addition to the peak trading, garlic farmers should also pay attention to the rhythm of other garlic farmers in the market. If the supply of goods is concentrated, the income of garlic farmers will be affected.

Garlic merchants vs. garlic farmers: garlic merchants have a long period of participation in market transactions, and their ways are complex. They have more reaction and influence on the market than garlic farmers. The main participants of the garlic market trend in 2018 are still garlic merchants, who are now focusing on how to operate this year's market.

In the competition between garlic merchants and the market, garlic is the enemy and the price of garlic is controlled by supply and demand. Garlic traders can be further subdivided into garlic vendors, brokers, stockers, distributors in domestic wholesale markets, export processing enterprises and downstream processing enterprises.

All the above groups can do short-term or long-term storage or processing when participating in this year's market transactions. The specific entry time and operation mode need to be carefully examined before being finalized.

The planting area of new garlic in 2018 is higher than that of last year. Although the yield of some main producing areas in Shandong and Henan is slightly reduced due to continuous planting, the total output is still higher than that of the same period of last year after balancing the proportion with the increase of area. After the price of garlic falls, the market demand will increase, especially this year, it is expected that dehydrated garlic will rapidly increase the use of raw garlic without the influence of policy. Starting from this week, the start-up of dehydration enterprises is limited, and the specific recovery time of operating rate can not be fully determined. Dealers at home and abroad are cautious in purchasing goods on demand, and the low price has not aroused their enthusiasm for taking goods.

If the popularity of garlic market is not boosted, the profit space of garlic merchants will be difficult to appear. Only when the contradiction between supply and demand in garlic market is solved fundamentally will a new price rising cycle come.

Therefore, it is suggested that garlic merchants should take the strategy of "waiting for work with ease" and wait for a good opportunity to enter the market.

If the enemy is trapped, do not fight. It is hard to lose but soft to gain.

It means: to lose the enemy's strength, we can adopt the strategy of keeping quiet and not fighting. Because naturally, it weakens the strong and strengthens the weak.

Under the normal supply-demand relationship, the price of garlic in storage last year should not be higher than 2.00 yuan / kg. The new production of garlic will continue to increase this year, and the purchase price should not be too high. The market is cruel. In 2018, only when low prices hurt farmers, the planting area of garlic decreased this autumn, and the contradiction between supply and demand was improved, could garlic merchants keep their profits. Therefore, before a large number of new dried garlic enter the market, we must "endure loneliness". When the garlic market price naturally falls to the trough without any human factors, it will rebound as much as possible.